Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Basis Analysis
Potato basis analysis measures the gap between a defined physical exposure and a chosen reference. MassGain compares historical and current basis by region, product, quality, timing, contracts, and freight so users can see the residual risk an external benchmark leaves behind.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato basis analysis measures the difference between a user's physical potato exposure and a selected reference such as another region, an index, futures contract, forward quote, or national benchmark. Basis should be defined by region, product, quality, crop period, freight, currency, and market channel.
Use historical and current basis to judge how well a reference tracks actual procurement or selling economics. This supports contract-index selection, budgeting, stress testing, and evaluation of residual risk after using an external benchmark.
Data Module
Potato basis context
Physical marketactual exposure being priced
Referenceindex, region, future, or benchmark
Product fitvariety, quality, and end use
Timingcrop period and contract lag
Spread behaviorhistorical range and volatility
Decision usebenchmark selection and residual-risk analysis
Analysis
Why this matters
A reference can move in the correct direction while still providing poor economic protection if basis widens. Regional crop problems, quality, storage, freight, or contract timing can cause local costs to diverge from an otherwise sensible index.
The analytical focus is residual risk. Correlation in normal periods is not enough; basis behavior during harvest, late storage, and disruptions is more important for planning. A good benchmark minimizes unexplained divergence in the periods when exposure matters most.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for processors, procurement analysts, lenders, traders, and risk teams that need to perform potato basis analysis. Basis is the difference between a physical potato exposure and a selected reference, such as another region, an index, a futures contract, a forward quote, or a national benchmark. MassGain helps users determine whether the chosen reference actually tracks the potato market they own.
Basis can arise from geography, variety, grade, quality, crop period, contract timing, freight, currency, storage, and market channel. A hedge or index may move in the expected direction while the user's local purchase cost behaves differently. MassGain compares historical relationships, volatility, market depth, crop conditions, and current spread behavior and maps the analysis to plant, supplier, or borrower exposure. Procurement can select better contract benchmarks, finance can improve forecasts and stress tests, and lenders can distinguish nominal coverage from effective economic protection. The result is a transparent measurement of the residual risk that remains after using an external price reference.
Use Case
A processor considers an EEX-related series for budgeting its regional grower contracts. MassGain shows the two markets correlate in normal periods but diverge sharply during late storage. Finance uses the reference for directional planning, keeps a separate basis stress, and avoids treating the index as a complete hedge.
FAQs
What is potato basis?
It is the difference between a defined physical potato price and another reference used for comparison, pricing, or risk.
What causes basis risk?
Region, product, quality, timing, contracts, freight, currency, storage, and market-channel differences all contribute.
How does MassGain analyze basis?
It compares historical and current spreads, correlation, volatility, market conditions, and the user's physical exposure.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.