Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Break Even Price
A potato break even price is the selling price required to cover a defined cost base at a stated marketable yield. MassGain compares that threshold with regional contracts, farmgate prices, historical ranges, quality adjustments, and marketing windows so growers and lenders can see how yield and quality change the point of financial stress.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato break-even price is the selling price required for a grower or potato enterprise to cover a defined cost base at a stated marketable yield. The calculation should specify whether it covers variable cash cost, total operating cost, full economic cost, or a target return and should include the relevant crop, region, quality, and marketing channel.
MassGain can compare the calculated threshold with regional farmgate prices, processing contracts, historical ranges, and expected selling windows. Users can stress yield, quality deductions, storage loss, and open-versus-contracted volume to see when the break-even assumption becomes financially fragile.
Data Module
Potato break-even context
Cost basecash, operating, or full economic cost
Yieldmarketable tonnes or hundredweight expected
Qualitypremiums, deductions, and usable output
Marketingcontract versus open-market exposure
Regional pricerelevant farmgate or contract benchmark
Decision uselending, contracting, and downside planning
Analysis
Why this matters
Break-even price is highly sensitive to marketable yield because the same production cost must be spread over fewer saleable units when yield or quality falls. A farm that appears comfortable at trend yield can move above available market prices after a relatively modest reduction in usable output.
The useful comparison is therefore a break-even curve, not one number. MassGain can show how the threshold intersects regional contract and cash-market ranges across yield and quality scenarios, making the point of financial stress visible.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 10, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato prices quiet at $30/cwt as regional harvest damage buzzes beneath the surface
Market indicators are stable, but reporting from Europe and select growing areas shows real, localized crop stress — a reminder that steady headline prices can mask uneven physical risk.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This is for potato growers, agricultural lenders, processors, and farm-finance teams that need to determine the price required for a potato enterprise to cover its defined costs. A potato break-even price depends on the cost base being measured: variable cash cost, total operating cost, full economic cost, or a target return that includes land, labor, machinery, storage, financing, and management. MassGain’s potato data suite adds external regional price, contract, yield, and market context so the calculation can be tested against realistic selling opportunities rather than treated as a static budget number.
Break-even analysis is most useful when expressed across yield and quality scenarios. A farm may appear profitable at expected tonnes per acre but fall below break-even if marketable yield declines, quality deductions rise, storage loss increases, or a fixed contract covers only part of production. MassGain helps users compare the calculated threshold with historical farmgate prices, contract benchmarks, spot markets, and likely marketing windows.
The output supports loan underwriting, crop planning, contract negotiations, and downside analysis. MassGain does not determine an individual grower’s actual costs or guarantee a sale price. It provides the market evidence needed to evaluate whether a break-even assumption is achievable, how sensitive it is to yield and quality, and when financing or marketing risk becomes material.
Use Case
A grower seeks financing for 600 acres of processing potatoes and presents a break-even price based on trend yield. The lender uses MassGain to compare regional contract values and tests lower marketable yield, higher storage loss, and quality deductions. The revised analysis shows the operation remains viable under the base contract but needs additional liquidity if usable yield falls 10%.
FAQs
What should a potato break-even price include?
The answer depends on scope, but it may include seed, fertilizer, chemicals, irrigation, labor, machinery, land, storage, freight, and financing.
Why should break-even be tested at several yields?
Lower marketable yield spreads costs across fewer saleable tonnes and can raise the required price sharply.
How does MassGain improve the calculation?
It compares the cost threshold with regional contracts, farmgate prices, historical ranges, quality, and market timing.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.