Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Carryout Forecast
A potato carryout forecast estimates the inventory expected to remain at the end of a defined crop or marketing year. MassGain reconciles production, trade, fresh and processing use, seed, losses, quality, and storage drawdown so analysts can compare ending-stock scenarios with historical ranges and next-crop transition risk.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato carryout forecast estimates inventory remaining at the end of a crop or marketing period after production, imports, processing, fresh use, exports, seed, feed, losses, and other disappearance are reconciled. The market object is ending stock by region, crop use, variety, quality, and ownership where evidence allows.
Use the data to assess late-season and crop-transition risk, compare carryout with operating minimums, and test alternate demand, trade, shrink, and quality scenarios. Distinguish nominal tonnes from merchantable and accessible inventory.
Data Module
Potato Carryout Forecast
Market objectforecast ending potato stocks
Primary measureremaining inventory range
Key dimensionsregion, crop use, quality, period
Commercial usecrop-transition and coverage planning
Balance itemssupply, demand, trade, losses
Compare withnew-crop timing and merchantable stocks
Analysis
Why this matters
Low carryout is not automatically tight when new crop arrives early and matches the buyer's needs, while high carryout can still be unusable if old stocks are deteriorating or committed.
Commercial interpretation should evaluate the handoff between old and new crop. The relevant cushion is inventory that remains marketable through the transition, not the headline ending total.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, processors, growers, lenders, and market analysts that need a forecast of potato carryout at the end of a crop or marketing period. Carryout represents inventory expected to remain after production, imports, demand, processing, exports, seed, feed, losses, and other disappearance are reconciled.
MassGain builds the forecast from a transparent potato balance sheet and can segment remaining stocks by region, crop use, variety, quality, ownership, and storage condition. Procurement can assess late-season availability and transition risk into the next crop. Processors can compare carryout with minimum operating needs. Growers can anticipate residual competition and storage pressure. Finance can model price, inventory valuation, and working capital. Analysts can see which demand or loss assumptions drive the result.
A national carryout number can conceal a severe commercial shortage if the remaining inventory is seed, low quality, committed, or far from users. Conversely, a low reported carryout may be manageable when new-crop supply overlaps early. MassGain does not guarantee final stocks. It records forecast vintages, confidence, and revisions and provides base, tight, and ample cases so users can distinguish nominal inventory from genuinely usable transition supply.
Use Case
The national carryout forecast falls to a five-year low. MassGain shows most remaining stocks are contracted processing potatoes with good overlap into new crop, while fresh-market inventory is tighter. A processor keeps coverage stable, but a distributor advances early-crop sourcing for vulnerable retail packs.
FAQs
What is potato carryout?
It is the inventory expected to remain at the end of a defined crop or marketing period.
Why can headline carryout misstate availability?
Product use, contracts, quality, location, ownership, and new-crop overlap determine usability.
How does MassGain forecast carryout?
It reconciles supply, demand, trade, processing, seed, feed, losses, stocks, and scenario assumptions.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.