Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Commodity Value at Risk
Potato commodity value at risk estimates potential loss on a defined physical exposure over a stated horizon and confidence level. MassGain supplies matched regional price history, volatility, basis, crop and storage context, and concentration data so finance teams can measure routine market risk and identify where separate stress tests are needed.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato commodity value at risk estimates the potential loss on a defined physical potato exposure over a stated horizon and confidence level. The exposure may include procurement, inventory, borrower positions, or regional supply and should be mapped by variety, quality, contract status, delivery period, and market basis.
MassGain provides regional benchmark history, volatility, basis relationships, crop and storage context, and concentration data so finance teams can calculate a repeatable market-risk measure grounded in physical potatoes rather than a generic commodity proxy.
Data Module
Potato VaR context
Exposureprocurement, inventory, or borrower position
Benchmarkmatched regional potato series
Horizonperiod over which loss is measured
Volatilityhistorical market movement
Basis riskmismatch between reference and exposure
Decision uselimits, liquidity, and risk reporting
Analysis
Why this matters
VaR is most useful as a standardized measure, not a complete description of potato risk. Thin data, nonlinear supply shocks, storage deterioration, and regional concentration can create losses outside the historical distribution.
MassGain helps define the benchmark and exposure correctly, while stress tests should capture events VaR may understate. The analytical goal is to distinguish routine market volatility from structural physical-market risks that require separate judgment.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 10, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato prices quiet at $30/cwt as regional harvest damage buzzes beneath the surface
Market indicators are stable, but reporting from Europe and select growing areas shows real, localized crop stress — a reminder that steady headline prices can mask uneven physical risk.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This is for agricultural lenders, processors, treasury teams, insurers, and risk managers that need to quantify the potential financial loss from adverse potato-market movement. Potato commodity value at risk estimates how much a defined portfolio, procurement book, inventory position, or borrower exposure could lose over a chosen horizon at a stated confidence level. MassGain’s potato data suite supplies the physical-market inputs needed for that calculation, including regional benchmark histories, volatility, cross-market relationships, crop and storage risk, contract coverage, and supply concentration.
Potato VaR requires more care than applying volatility from a liquid exchange contract. Physical exposures differ by region, variety, quality, crop year, contract status, delivery period, and freight basis. MassGain helps users map each position to the appropriate market, distinguish fixed from repricing or open volume, and account for basis risk between a reference series and the actual exposure. Scenario and stress overlays can address events that historical volatility may understate, such as storage deterioration, processor allocation, harvest disruption, or a regional logistics failure.
The analysis supports credit limits, procurement risk reporting, liquidity planning, inventory valuation, and portfolio concentration reviews. MassGain does not guarantee that losses will remain within a VaR estimate or replace stress testing. It provides transparent market data and exposure definitions so finance teams can calculate a repeatable risk measure, understand its assumptions, and identify where sparse data, nonlinear supply effects, or concentrated physical risk require additional judgment.
Use Case
An agricultural lender has exposure to growers in two regions, a storage operator, and a processor with partially uncovered raw-material needs. MassGain maps each exposure to relevant regional price series and contract timing, then estimates a 95% three-month commodity VaR. The result shows moderate portfolio risk overall but a large concentration in one late-storage region. The lender sets a targeted monitoring threshold, requests updated coverage from the processor, and supplements VaR with a severe storage-loss stress case.
FAQs
What is potato commodity value at risk?
It estimates the potential loss on a defined potato exposure over a chosen horizon and confidence level using market and position data.
Why is basis risk important in potato VaR?
The reference benchmark may differ from the actual region, variety, quality, contract period, or delivery basis of the exposure.
Can VaR replace potato stress testing?
No. VaR should be supplemented with scenarios for crop failure, storage loss, allocation, liquidity gaps, and logistics disruption.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.