Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Dry Matter Forecast
A potato dry matter forecast provides an early range for processing solids or specific-gravity performance before final intake testing. Processors can compare regions and suppliers on expected fry, dehydration, or starch recovery and value raw potatoes by finished-output economics rather than price per tonne alone.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato dry-matter forecast estimates likely solids or specific-gravity performance by variety, region, crop stage, and delivery period before final intake testing. The market object is the expected dry-matter range for processing-ready raw potatoes.
Use the data to forecast fry, dehydration, or starch recovery, compare raw-potato offers on expected cost per finished output, and allocate higher-solids lots to sensitive products. Combine field and maturity evidence with storage plans because dry-matter performance can vary by crop and cohort.
Data Module
Potato Dry Matter Forecast
Market objectprocessing solids outlook
Primary measureexpected dry matter
Key dimensionsregion, variety, delivery window
End usefries, flakes, starch
Commercial useyield and cost planning
Compare withspecific gravity, plant recovery, price
Analysis
Why this matters
Raw-potato price and finished-product cost can diverge when solids change. Lower dry matter may require more raw tonnes and processing energy for the same output, making a cheap crop expensive on a finished-unit basis.
Commercial interpretation should therefore combine forecast solids with plant recovery and product mix. A premium for high-solids potatoes can be rational when the conversion benefit exceeds the raw-price difference.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for potato processors, ingredient manufacturers, procurement teams, and crop planners that need a potato dry matter forecast before final intake testing is available. Dry matter and specific gravity strongly influence fry yield, dehydration efficiency, starch recovery, oil uptake, energy use, and finished-product economics. MassGain combines variety, crop stage, weather, irrigation, maturity, field sampling, storage plans, and historical regional performance to estimate likely dry-matter ranges by origin and delivery window.
A dry-matter forecast makes quality risk visible before it appears in plant variance. A region may produce ample tonnes but deliver weaker solids, requiring more raw potatoes and processing energy for the same finished output. Another region may justify a premium because stronger dry matter improves recovery and throughput. MassGain connects forecast quality with regional potato benchmarks, contract prices, plant yield history, product requirements, and alternate sourcing options. Procurement can compare offers on expected cost per usable output rather than price per tonne; operations can allocate higher-solids lots to sensitive lines; finance can build plant-specific standard-cost scenarios. Forecast vintages are revised as field tests, maturity, harvest, and storage evidence improve. MassGain does not replace laboratory analysis or receiving tests. It provides a disciplined planning range that helps teams anticipate quality-adjusted supply and cost before contracts or production schedules become difficult to change.
Use Case
A potato-flake manufacturer plans its autumn intake using normal-yield assumptions. MassGain shows one region is likely to deliver below-trend dry matter after a cool, wet season. The processor secures a smaller high-solids tranche elsewhere, revises drying-energy assumptions, and avoids using one blended raw-potato cost across both plants.
FAQs
What does a potato dry matter forecast show?
It estimates likely solids or specific-gravity ranges by variety, region, crop stage, and delivery period.
Why does dry matter affect plant cost?
Lower solids can reduce finished yield and increase raw-material, energy, and processing requirements.
Can the forecast replace intake testing?
No. It supports planning, while laboratory and plant tests confirm the actual quality of delivered lots.
Put this market intelligence to work
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Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.