Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Farm Retail Price Spread
The potato farm retail price spread view builds a matched bridge from farm-level value to retail price for the same product, package, region, and period. Growers and analysts can separate packing, shrink, storage, freight, distribution, and promotion from the residual spread instead of treating the difference as retailer profit.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato farm-retail-price-spread data measures the difference between a matched farm-level potato value and retail shelf price. The market object is the price chain for the same region, variety, package, period, and saleable weight, including the costs added between grower and consumer.
Use the data to study price transmission and separate farm value from grading, packing, shrink, storage, freight, distribution, labor, merchandising, and promotion. Normalize pack-out and units before comparing the spread through time.
Data Module
Potato Farm-Retail Price Spread
Market objectfarm-to-shelf price bridge
Primary measurematched price spread
Key dimensionsregion, product, package, period
Commercial usetransmission and margin analysis
Intermediate costspack, shrink, freight, distribution
Compare withhistorical spread and consumer demand
Analysis
Why this matters
A wider farm-retail spread does not equal retailer profit because several value-added and loss stages sit between farm and shelf. Retail promotions can also move the spread independently of upstream supply.
Commercial interpretation should first account for matched intermediate costs and timing. The residual spread is more informative than the raw difference between two headline prices.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for growers, producer organizations, analysts, and procurement teams that need to understand the spread between farm-level potato prices and retail shelf prices. The farm-retail spread is not simply retailer profit. It includes packing, grading, shrink, storage, processing where applicable, transportation, labor, merchandising, distribution, and losses between the farm and consumer. MassGain helps users separate those layers and compare them consistently over time.
The suite aligns farmgate values with the correct retail product, package, variety, region, and observation period. It can account for conversion from raw weight to saleable pack weight and place the spread beside freight, packaging, wholesale prices, terminal activity, and consumer demand. Growers can see whether a retail increase is reaching the production stage. Analysts can study transmission and lag. Procurement and commercial teams can explain why farm and shelf prices may move at different speeds.
A wide spread does not by itself prove excess margin, and a narrow spread may reflect temporary promotions or rising upstream costs. MassGain does not disclose private margins or assign blame. It provides a transparent price-chain framework for identifying where value and cost are added and whether current farm-retail relationships differ materially from historical and regional norms.
Use Case
A grower association sees retail russet prices rise while farmgate values remain flat. MassGain matches the same pack and region and shows packaging, freight, and retail promotion timing explain part of the gap, but the residual spread is unusually wide. The association uses the evidence in buyer discussions without overstating retailer profit.
FAQs
What is the potato farm-retail spread?
It is the difference between a defined farm-level price and the matched retail selling price.
Why is the spread not equal to retailer profit?
Packing, shrink, storage, freight, distribution, labor, merchandising, and other costs sit between farm and shelf.
How does MassGain make the comparison valid?
It aligns product, package, region, timing, weight basis, channel, and intermediate costs.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.