Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Market Volatility
Potato market volatility measures the size and frequency of price changes within a clearly defined physical market. MassGain segments region, product, crop period, and channel and adds market depth, crop, storage, contracts, and basis so procurement and risk teams can stress the volume that actually reprices rather than apply one national statistic.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato market volatility measures how much and how frequently prices move within a clearly defined physical market. Relevant analysis should separate region, variety, end use, crop period, and market channel and should consider thin trading, quality, and basis as well as statistical price variation.
Use volatility data to build procurement contingencies, contract ranges, credit stress tests, and inventory policies. Compare realized price movement with crop shocks, storage deterioration, demand, contracts, and market depth so the source of risk remains visible.
Data Module
Potato volatility context
Price seriesmatched physical-market benchmark
Regiongeography of the exposure
Horizonweekly, monthly, seasonal, or annual
Rangerealized dispersion and drawdown
Market depthtrading and observation quality
Decision usecontingency, stress, and risk planning
Analysis
Why this matters
A national volatility statistic can misstate company risk. Contracted plants may have little immediate price exposure while one open-market region carries substantial variability; a thin cash series can also look volatile because of isolated trades.
The analytical task is to match volatility to the volume that actually reprices. Basis, quality, and availability shocks may matter more than ordinary price standard deviation. Risk planning should therefore focus on the exposed market and time window rather than applying one generic commodity assumption.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for processors, growers, procurement teams, lenders, insurers, and risk managers that need to measure and interpret potato market volatility. Volatility describes the size and frequency of price changes in a defined market, but potato risk also includes regional basis, quality, storage, availability, and thin-market effects. MassGain helps users match volatility analysis to the physical exposure they actually own.
A broad historical standard deviation can understate the commercial risk of a localized shortage or overstate risk when one extreme transaction dominates a thin series. MassGain separates regions, products, crop periods, and market channels and compares price movement with crop shocks, storage deterioration, demand, contract coverage, and market depth. Teams can examine realized volatility, ranges, drawdowns, regime changes, and stress scenarios rather than relying on one generic commodity assumption. Procurement can set coverage thresholds, finance can size contingencies, and lenders can test borrower and collateral sensitivity. The result is a volatility framework that captures not only how much prices moved, but why they moved and whether the same conditions are relevant to the current exposure.
Use Case
A lender applies national potato-price volatility to a processor’s entire raw-material book. MassGain shows most volume is fixed under contracts, while the true risk is concentrated in one regional open-market window with much higher historical variability. The credit team narrows the stress to the exposed plant and period, producing a more realistic liquidity scenario.
FAQs
What is potato market volatility?
It is the degree of price variation within a clearly defined potato market and period.
Why can national volatility misstate company risk?
Contracts, regions, varieties, timing, quality, and basis determine the exposure that actually reprices.
How does MassGain make volatility analysis practical?
It combines matched price history with market depth, crop, storage, supply, contracts, and scenario context.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.