Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Mean Reversion Analysis
Potato mean reversion analysis tests whether matched physical prices or spreads tend to move back toward a historical relationship after deviations. MassGain distinguishes seasonal patterns, structural breaks, storage cycles, and changing market regimes so users do not assume every extreme price will automatically normalize.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato mean-reversion-analysis data tests whether a defined physical price or regional spread tends to return toward a recurring equilibrium after temporary deviations. The market object is the normalized price series with seasonality, inflation, quality, freight, crop balance, and structural breaks accounted for.
Use the data to estimate the stability and speed of reversion across harvest, storage, and shortage periods and to compare current deviations with an economically relevant reference rather than a simple long-run average. Test whether changes in acreage, capacity, trade, or contracting have shifted the equilibrium.
Data Module
Potato Mean Reversion Analysis
Market objectnormalized potato price or spread
Primary measuresdeviation and reversion speed
Key dimensionsregion, season, market regime
Commercial useprice and timing interpretation
Structural driversacreage, capacity, trade, contracts
Compare withcurrent physical balance
Analysis
Why this matters
Waiting for a historical mean can be costly when the market has moved to a new equilibrium after processor expansion, acreage loss, or changed trade access. Historical reversion and current structure must agree.
Commercial interpretation should distinguish temporary premium from structural repricing. A statistical half-life is not a procurement rule when the physical reasons for the old mean no longer exist.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement and market-intelligence teams that need to determine whether potato prices tend to return toward a recurring equilibrium after temporary shocks. Mean reversion analysis compares current prices with seasonally and structurally appropriate reference levels and estimates the speed and reliability of any return.
MassGain can test regional cash prices, farmgate values, processor purchases, or spreads while controlling for harvest, storage, inflation, quality, freight, and changes in crop balance. Analysts can distinguish a temporary weather premium from a persistent shift caused by lost acreage, new processing capacity, trade policy, or benchmark methodology. Procurement can avoid buying aggressively on the assumption that every spike will fade. Finance can model how long elevated or depressed prices may affect contracts and margins.
Potato prices may appear mean-reverting over one historical period and then move to a new regime. MassGain does not treat a statistical half-life as a guaranteed trading or purchasing signal. It preserves estimation windows, structural-break tests, confidence, and physical-market rationale. Users can see whether reversion is strongest after harvest abundance, weakest during quality shortages, or absent in a transformed market, and can pair the analysis with current stocks, demand, and supply evidence.
Use Case
A buyer sees prices 20% above their five-year seasonal average and expects rapid reversion. MassGain shows a new processor and reduced acreage have shifted the regional equilibrium upward. Procurement avoids waiting for a return to an obsolete mean and benchmarks against the new supply-demand structure.
FAQs
What is potato price mean reversion?
It is the tendency of price to move back toward a defined equilibrium after a deviation.
Why can the historical mean become obsolete?
Capacity, acreage, trade, costs, quality, and market structure can create a new equilibrium.
How does MassGain test reversion?
It evaluates seasonality, stationarity, half-life, structural breaks, and current physical-market evidence.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.