Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Otc Swap Pricing
Potato OTC swap pricing evaluates an indicative privately negotiated cash settlement against a defined physical potato exposure. Treasury and procurement teams can compare benchmark fit, historical basis, seasonality, tenor, credit, and commercial alternatives without treating an indication as an exchange price.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato OTC-swap-pricing data evaluates a privately negotiated fixed-versus-floating cash settlement against the buyer's or seller's physical potato exposure. The market object is the proposed swap by benchmark, region, product, tenor, volume, currency, settlement rules, credit terms, and expected basis.
Use the data to compare dealer indications with regional potato benchmarks, historical basis, seasonality, reporting frequency, and alternative commercial contracts. Keep executable dealer terms separate from independent market analysis.
Data Module
Potato OTC Swap Pricing
Market objectprivately negotiated potato-linked swap
Primary measuresfixed leg, floating benchmark, basis
Key dimensionstenor, region, product, volume, currency
Commercial useswap and basis-risk review
Risk factorsliquidity, credit, timing, benchmark fit
Compare withfixed supply and formula contracts
Analysis
Why this matters
A swap can settle exactly as written while failing to offset the user's physical potato cost if geography, quality, timing, or product basis differs. Benchmark fit is therefore as important as the quoted fixed rate.
Commercial interpretation should stress basis and counterparty terms and avoid treating an indicative OTC price as a transparent exchange market.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, treasury, finance, and market-intelligence teams evaluating potato OTC swap pricing when no standardized exchange contract cleanly matches their physical exposure. MassGain starts with the actual risk—region, crop period, product, volume, currency, and pricing basis—then helps users assess the benchmark and commercial assumptions that would determine a privately negotiated cash settlement.
The suite can compare proposed fixed and floating legs with regional potato benchmarks, historical basis, seasonality, reporting frequency, liquidity, and contract coverage. Procurement can determine whether the reference follows the potatoes it buys. Finance can model settlement ranges and collateral or credit implications. Risk teams can identify gaps caused by quality, location, timing, volume, or benchmark discontinuity.
An OTC price is not directly observable like a liquid exchange quote; it depends on counterparties, methodology, tenor, credit, and documentation. MassGain does not arrange swaps, quote executable terms, or provide investment or legal advice. It provides the independent physical-market evidence needed to challenge a dealer indication, document basis risk, and compare a proposed swap with fixed-price supply, formula contracts, floors, or other commercial alternatives.
Use Case
A processor is offered a twelve-month swap tied to a European processing-potato index. MassGain compares the index with the processor’s plant-weighted sourcing regions and finds a persistent late-storage basis gap. Treasury reduces the covered volume, adds a basis reserve, and retains physical supplier options for the unmatched exposure.
FAQs
What determines potato OTC swap pricing?
Benchmark level, tenor, volatility, liquidity, credit, settlement terms, and expected basis all influence the quoted price.
Why is benchmark fit critical?
A swap can settle correctly under its terms while still failing to offset the buyer’s actual regional or quality exposure.
How does MassGain support review?
It maps the physical exposure, benchmark history, basis, seasonality, alternatives, and stress scenarios without presenting executable swap terms.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.