Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Price Expectation Survey
Potato price expectation survey data records forecasts for a defined market, unit, geography, product, target period, expected range, confidence, and rationale. Analysts can compare growers, processors, buyers, and intermediaries, preserve forecast vintages, and measure later bias instead of presenting one average as a forward price.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato price-expectation-survey data records forecasts for a precisely defined future potato market, including unit, geography, product, forecast date, target period, expected level or range, respondent type, confidence, and rationale. The market object is the distribution of expectations across comparable horizons.
Use the data to measure dispersion, skew, consensus change, and differences among growers, processors, buyers, and intermediaries. Preserve forecast vintages and compare them with later realized outcomes to assess bias and calibration.
Data Module
Potato Price Expectation Survey
Market objectdistribution of future price views
Primary measuresexpected range and dispersion
Key dimensionsmarket, horizon, respondent, confidence
Commercial usescenario and expectation analysis
Quality contextvintage, sample, rationale
Compare withlater realized prices and bias
Analysis
Why this matters
The average expectation can be misleading when responses are bimodal or highly dispersed. Distinct participant groups may be pricing different risks, such as production cost, open-market scarcity, or demand.
Commercial interpretation should emphasize the distribution and confidence rather than present one consensus number as a forward price. Persistent forecast bias by respondent group is itself useful evidence.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for analysts and market researchers that need to collect potato price expectations over clearly defined future horizons. MassGain structures each response around the exact market, unit, geography, product, expected level or range, forecast date, target period, confidence, rationale, and respondent type.
The distribution of expectations often matters more than the average. Growers may emphasize production cost and storage risk, buyers may focus on coverage and demand, and brokers may observe a narrower open market. MassGain can compare these groups, calculate dispersion and skew, preserve forecast vintages, and measure later bias and calibration. Researchers can identify whether consensus is strengthening, whether uncertainty is widening, and which assumptions explain disagreement.
A survey does not create a true forward price and should not blend unmatched markets or horizons. MassGain does not guarantee forecast accuracy or reveal confidential individual responses. It provides a reproducible methodology that separates respondent groups, documents sample changes, and connects expectations with current cash prices, crop conditions, storage, contracts, and later realized outcomes. The result is a qualified view of what the market expects and how much confidence should be placed in that view.
Use Case
Analysts survey six-month processing-potato expectations before contracting season. MassGain separates growers, processors, brokers, and buyers, records confidence, and shows the average hides a wide bimodal distribution. The research report presents scenarios and disagreement rather than a misleading single forecast.
FAQs
What should a price expectation survey specify?
It should specify the exact market, unit, horizon, expected value or range, confidence, and reasoning.
Why report the distribution of answers?
Averages can hide disagreement, skew, and distinct views among growers, buyers, and intermediaries.
How does MassGain assess forecast quality?
It stores vintages, compares expectations with later outcomes, and measures bias and calibration by respondent group.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.