Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Price Pass Through Model
A potato price pass through model estimates how matched raw-potato market changes move into processor costs, supplier invoices, and customer pricing over time. Apply contract coverage, cost share, yield, inventory, and reset lags so spot moves are not passed through mechanically.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato price-pass-through model estimates how changes in raw-potato markets flow into processor costs, supplier invoices, finished products, and customer pricing over time. The market object is the relationship between a matched physical benchmark and a defined commercial contract or product, including lag and cost share.
Use the model to test supplier adjustments, forecast margin timing, and separate potatoes from oil, energy, packaging, freight, labor, and other conversion costs. Map each plant and contract to the correct region, crop period, coverage structure, and quality-adjusted usage.
Data Module
Potato Price Pass-Through Model
Market objectbenchmark-to-invoice relationship
Primary measurespass-through share and lag
Key dimensionsregion, plant, contract, product
Commercial usepricing and margin forecasting
Cost layersraw potato versus conversion
Compare withcontract coverage, inventory, yield
Analysis
Why this matters
Spot potato prices and supplier invoices rarely move one-for-one or simultaneously. Contracted grower volume, stored inventory, customer reset dates, and raw potatoes' share of finished cost all delay or dilute transmission.
Commercial interpretation should model each cost component separately. A justified pass-through claim needs the correct benchmark, actual exposure timing, and quality-adjusted usage rather than a headline market move.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement teams, processors, restaurant systems, finance leaders, and commercial analysts that need a potato price pass-through model. The model estimates how changes in raw-potato markets move into contract prices, processor costs, finished products, distributor invoices, and customer pricing over time. MassGain provides the matched regional benchmarks and timing evidence needed to avoid assuming an immediate one-for-one relationship.
Pass-through depends on contracted versus open volume, crop period, inventory coverage, product yield, processing cost, oil, energy, packaging, freight, customer contracts, and review lags. MassGain maps each plant, supplier, product, and contract to the relevant physical market and tracks historical relationships between benchmark movement and invoice changes. Procurement can test whether a supplier request is proportionate and timely. Finance can forecast margin compression or recovery. Commercial teams can prepare cost bridges and identify when previous scarcity premiums should reverse. The model can use separate coefficients and lags for different cost components rather than blending them into one inflation factor. MassGain does not reveal private supplier margins or guarantee future pass-through. It provides a transparent, updateable framework that documents assumptions, distinguishes commodity from noncommodity costs, and shows how much of a market move is likely to affect each commercial exposure and when.
Use Case
A QSR supplier requests an immediate 8% fry increase after spot potato prices rise. MassGain shows most raw volume is fixed under grower contracts for another quarter and raw potatoes represent only part of case cost. The model supports a smaller delayed adjustment and sets a review date when the supplier’s true crop-cost exposure begins.
FAQs
What determines potato price pass-through?
Contract coverage, inventory, crop timing, product yield, processing, freight, and customer reset terms all matter.
Is pass-through usually one-for-one?
No. Raw potatoes are one cost component, and timing and commercial structures dilute or delay the effect.
How does MassGain validate the model?
It compares matched benchmarks, invoices, contracts, plant exposure, and historical timing.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.