Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Price Regime Analysis
Potato price regime analysis identifies periods in which price behavior, volatility, spreads, supply, and demand follow materially different patterns. MassGain connects statistical regimes with crop, storage, processing, trade, and market-structure evidence so analysts can avoid applying relationships learned in one environment to another.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato price-regime-analysis data classifies a defined market into recurring states such as surplus, balanced, tight, or crisis conditions with different price, volatility, liquidity, and fundamental behavior. The market object is the probability of each regime by region, product, and period.
Use the data to combine statistical regime models with physical indicators such as merchantable stocks, crop quality, processing utilization, imports, storage age, freight, and transaction activity. Track persistence and transition signals before changing procurement rules.
Data Module
Potato Price Regime Analysis
Market objectprobability of market state
Primary measuresregime, persistence, transition probability
Key dimensionsregion, product, period, model
Commercial usecoverage and risk-policy adjustment
Physical confirmationstocks, quality, demand, trade
Compare withlater prices and state persistence
Analysis
Why this matters
A high-price week does not necessarily represent a new tight regime; ordinary seasonal noise or one thin trade can create the same observation. Regime classification becomes commercially useful only when price behavior and physical evidence persist together.
Interpretation should avoid constant reclassification. Procurement can change coverage discipline when multiple indicators confirm a structural state, not merely because an algorithm flips for one period.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
October 26, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Flat headline prices mask a regional squeeze on carton russets
MassGain’s physical indicators are unchanged, but USDA shipping‑point reports and terminal quotes show premiums for 40–70s russets. UCUI remains NORMAL even as European yields and UK storage quality draw attention.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, finance, and market-intelligence teams that need to identify distinct potato price regimes. A regime can represent surplus, balanced, tight, crisis, or other recurring market states with different average prices, volatility, correlations, and responses to crop or demand information. MassGain helps users detect those states and connect them with physical conditions.
The suite can compare statistical regime-switching models with observable evidence such as stocks-to-use, crop quality, processing utilization, import availability, storage age, freight, and transaction activity. Analysts can estimate transition probabilities and determine whether indicators behave differently in each state. Procurement can change coverage rules when the market moves from normal availability to persistent tightness. Finance can use regime-specific budget and stress assumptions rather than one average volatility. Management can see which data support a state change.
Regimes are model constructs, not official labels, and can be identified too late or revised after new data. MassGain does not treat one algorithmic signal as proof. It records definitions, thresholds, probabilities, model versions, and physical corroboration and compares classifications with later outcomes. This provides a governed framework for recognizing structural shifts while avoiding constant reclassification from ordinary weekly noise.
Use Case
A regional market appears to enter a high-price regime after a poor harvest. MassGain shows prices, volatility, processor bids, and stocks all confirm tightness, while imports remain constrained. Procurement shifts from opportunistic spot buying to protected core coverage until transition indicators improve.
FAQs
What is a potato price regime?
It is a recurring market state with distinct price, volatility, and supply-demand behavior.
How can regimes be identified?
Statistical models and physical thresholds involving stocks, quality, demand, trade, and activity can be combined.
How does MassGain avoid false regime changes?
It requires documented probabilities, persistence, multiple indicators, and physical-market corroboration.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.