Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Price Transmission Analysis
The potato price transmission analysis view follows the magnitude, timing, direction, and persistence of price movement across defined market stages. Procurement and finance teams can test lags and asymmetry while separating potato-market effects from freight, packaging, energy, labor, and contract structure.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato price-transmission-analysis data links matched price series across growers, handlers, processors, distributors, foodservice, and retail. The market object is the magnitude, timing, direction, and persistence of price movement between defined stages of the same potato value chain.
Use the data to estimate pass-through lags, test asymmetry between increases and decreases, and separate potato-market movement from freight, packaging, oil, energy, or labor. Keep geography, product, crop period, contracts, and quality aligned.
Data Module
Potato Price Transmission Analysis
Market objectprice movement across market stages
Primary measuresmagnitude, lag, direction, persistence
Key dimensionsproduct, region, stage, contract
Commercial usesupplier and customer price analysis
Driverscontracts, inventory, non-potato costs
Compare withmatched upstream and downstream series
Analysis
Why this matters
Price transmission is rarely immediate or symmetric. Spot potatoes can reprice before processor contracts, while retail or foodservice prices may remain influenced by older inventory and unrelated conversion costs.
Commercial interpretation should distinguish lag from resistance. A downstream price that has not yet moved may be behaving exactly as the contract structure predicts rather than signaling excess margin.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, finance, market-intelligence, and research teams that need to understand how potato price changes move through growers, handlers, processors, distributors, foodservice, and retail. Price transmission analysis measures the size, direction, timing, and persistence of those movements. MassGain helps users avoid assuming that every upstream change passes through immediately or proportionally.
The suite links matched price series across market stages and controls for region, product, crop period, contract coverage, package, freight, and quality. Users can examine lags, asymmetry, and reversals: increases may pass faster than decreases, spot markets may move before contracts, and finished-product prices may reflect oil, labor, energy, or packaging as well as potatoes. Procurement can challenge unsupported supplier claims. Finance can improve cost forecasts. Analysts can identify where market signals weaken or become delayed.
Transmission relationships can change when contracts, capacity, competition, or market structure change. MassGain does not treat historical correlations as guaranteed causal rules. It provides a transparent framework for comparing stages, documenting assumptions, and testing whether observed pass-through is broad, temporary, asymmetric, or driven by non-potato costs.
Use Case
A QSR buyer sees raw potato benchmarks fall but frozen fry prices remain unchanged. MassGain shows supplier grower contracts reset with a six-month lag and energy costs rose during the same period. Procurement schedules the raw-material review for the actual reset date and separates it from the energy component.
FAQs
What does potato price transmission analysis measure?
It measures how price changes move between market stages, including magnitude, timing, direction, and persistence.
Why can pass-through be asymmetric?
Contracts, inventory, competition, capacity, and cost uncertainty can make increases and decreases move differently.
How does MassGain test transmission?
It aligns matched series and adds contracts, product mix, quality, freight, processing costs, and structural changes.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.