Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Probability Survey Estimates
Potato probability survey estimates provide acreage, production, stocks, price, or demand signals with measurable sampling uncertainty. MassGain preserves the point estimate, methodology, response, weighting, interval, revisions, and publication timing so users can judge how much confidence the evidence deserves.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato probability-survey-estimate data preserves a survey estimate together with sample design, population, reference period, response rate, weighting, imputation, interval, standard error, revision history, and publication date. The market object is the estimate plus its uncertainty.
Use the data to judge whether acreage, production, stocks, prices, or demand changes are statistically and commercially meaningful and to carry sampling uncertainty into scenarios.
Data Module
Potato Probability Survey Estimates
Market objectsurvey estimate with uncertainty
Primary measuresestimate, interval, standard error
Key dimensionspopulation, period, sample, response
Commercial useforecast and evidence weighting
Controlsweighting, imputation, revisions
Compare withadministrative and later final data
Analysis
Why this matters
A point estimate can look precise while the sampling interval is wide enough that the apparent change is not commercially meaningful. Statistical and economic significance are separate questions.
Commercial interpretation should preserve uncertainty and compare the survey with independent physical evidence before making large decisions.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for analysts and market researchers interpreting potato probability survey estimates used in acreage, production, stocks, prices, demand, or other market measures. MassGain preserves the estimate, survey population, sample design, reference period, response rate, weighting, imputation, probability interval, standard error, revision history, and publication date.
It helps users distinguish a point estimate from the uncertainty created by sampling and nonresponse and prevents confidence language from being detached from the survey’s actual design. Researchers can compare vintages, assess whether changes are statistically and commercially meaningful, and combine survey evidence with administrative records, shipments, inspections, remote sensing, and later final data.
Forecasting teams can carry the uncertainty into base, upside, and downside scenarios rather than treating an early estimate as exact. MassGain does not replace the issuing agency’s methodology or independently validate every respondent. It provides a transparent analytical framework that makes survey assumptions and uncertainty visible, allowing users to judge how much weight an estimate deserves in potato-market decisions.
Use Case
An early potato production survey shows a 4% decline. MassGain compares the estimate with its sampling error, response coverage, weather evidence, and later acreage data. The decline is directionally useful but not precise enough to justify a large purchasing change, so the analyst updates scenarios rather than the single base case.
FAQs
What is a probability survey estimate?
It is an estimate derived from a probability-based sample intended to represent a defined population.
Why should sampling uncertainty be retained?
The reported point may differ from the true population value because only a sample was observed.
How does MassGain use survey estimates?
It preserves methodology and uncertainty and combines the estimate with other evidence and later revisions.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.