Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Production Estimate Revisions
Potato production estimate revisions show how crop expectations evolve as acreage, yield, harvest, quality, and reporting evidence improve. MassGain preserves every forecast vintage and decomposes changes so planners can distinguish true crop deterioration from statistical updates or reclassification.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato production-estimate-revision data tracks how expected crop output changes as acreage, harvested area, yield, abandonment, field evidence, storage intake, and official reporting improve. The market object is the production forecast vintage by geography, crop use, crop year, and source.
Use the data to attribute each revision to area, yield, abandonment, quality, methodology, or reporting rather than treating the new total as an unexplained shock. Map changes to the regions and product classes relevant to processors, growers, lenders, and procurement.
Data Module
Potato Production Estimate Revisions
Market objectversioned crop-production estimate
Primary measuresarea, yield, production change
Key dimensionsregion, crop use, crop year, source
Commercial usesupply and forecast updating
Revision driversarea, yield, abandonment, methodology
Compare withstorage intake and market reaction
Analysis
Why this matters
A national production revision can have narrow commercial impact if the change is concentrated in a fresh-market region while processing supply is unchanged. Conversely, a smaller national revision can matter greatly when it affects a critical processor basin or variety.
Commercial interpretation should decompose the revision before changing coverage. The market signal is where and why expected usable production moved, not simply the percentage change in the headline crop.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, processors, growers, lenders, and forecasting teams that need to track potato production estimate revisions. Production estimates evolve as planted and harvested area, yield, abandonment, field reports, storage intake, and official surveys become clearer. MassGain records each vintage and shows which component changed rather than replacing the old number silently.
The suite can organize estimate date, crop year, geography, acreage, yield, production, quality notes, source, confidence, and revision reason. Procurement can see whether a lower estimate affects its actual sourcing basin and product. Growers can compare evolving regional expectations. Finance can update cost and margin scenarios. Forecasters can test whether revisions are predictable and evaluate models without using information that arrived later. Market intelligence can distinguish a genuine crop deterioration from a methodological or reporting adjustment.
MassGain does not guarantee final production or treat every revision as equally informative. It provides a transparent vintage and attribution framework that connects estimate changes with weather, harvest progress, yield evidence, storage receipts, prices, and market reactions. Users can understand what changed, why confidence changed, and how much of the new estimate should alter procurement or risk decisions.
Use Case
A national potato estimate is revised down 4%. MassGain shows nearly all reduction comes from one rain-damaged processing region, while fresh-producing areas are unchanged. A nearby processor raises coverage, but buyers outside the affected specification avoid a category-wide reaction.
FAQs
What can revise a production estimate?
Acreage, harvested area, yield, abandonment, weather, surveys, storage intake, and corrected records can change it.
Why preserve earlier estimates?
Earlier vintages show what market participants knew and allow fair forecast and decision evaluation.
How does MassGain attribute revisions?
It separates acreage, yield, geography, crop use, quality, methodology, and source changes.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.