Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Rainfall Deficit Index
A potato rainfall deficit index measures precipitation shortfall against a defined regional and seasonal reference, but rainfall deficit is not automatically crop water deficit. Procurement and growers can combine the index with soil moisture, evapotranspiration, irrigation capacity, and contracted acreage to identify basins where unmet demand may matter.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato rainfall-deficit index measures accumulated precipitation shortfall against a defined regional and seasonal reference. The market object is the deficit over mapped potato acreage, interpreted by crop stage, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, irrigation capacity, and temperature.
Use the index to compare basins, identify where rainfall shortfall is not being offset by irrigation, and build yield or quality scenarios for exposed contracted production. Keep the reference period and geography consistent because the same deficit can have very different agronomic and commercial effects.
Data Module
Potato Rainfall Deficit Index
Market objectregional precipitation shortfall
Primary measuredeficit versus reference
Key dimensionsbasin, period, crop stage
Mitigationirrigation and soil moisture
Commercial usewater-risk benchmark
Compare withET, reservoir supply, crop response
Analysis
Why this matters
Rainfall deficit is not equivalent to water deficit. An irrigated region with secure supply can absorb a large precipitation shortfall, while a smaller deficit can become material where allocations or pumping capacity are constrained.
Commercial interpretation should therefore focus on unmet crop demand and the acreage exposed to it. The index becomes price-relevant only when mitigation is limited and crop or availability signals confirm the risk.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement analysts, growers, processors, lenders, and climate-risk teams that need a potato rainfall deficit index. The index measures accumulated rainfall shortfall relative to a regional and seasonal benchmark over a defined period. MassGain helps users interpret the deficit alongside crop stage, soil moisture, irrigation capacity, evapotranspiration, temperature, planted area, and historical yield rather than treating rainfall alone as a direct production forecast.
A deficit can be economically minor in a well-irrigated region or serious where reservoirs, groundwater, or pumping capacity are constrained. Timing also matters: a shortfall during emergence may have different effects from one during tuber initiation or bulking. MassGain maps the index to sourcing basins, varieties, grower contracts, plant dependence, and market alternatives and compares it with crop-development and price signals. Procurement teams can identify which regions deserve field verification, finance can build targeted downside cases, and lenders can assess borrowers with concentrated water exposure. Historical analogs show how similar deficits affected yield, size, quality, and market prices. MassGain does not predict crop loss from rainfall alone. It provides a transparent benchmark that combines water demand and available mitigation with commercial exposure so users can distinguish a manageable weather anomaly from a developing supply risk.
Use Case
A rainfall deficit deepens during bulking in two neighboring regions. MassGain shows one has ample irrigation reserves while the other faces allocation limits and supplies a critical processing variety. The processor opens a downside scenario only for the exposed basin and reserves alternate volume.
FAQs
What does a potato rainfall deficit index measure?
It measures accumulated rainfall below a defined historical or agronomic reference over a stated period.
Does rainfall deficit always reduce yield?
No. Irrigation, soil moisture, crop stage, temperature, and duration determine the effect.
How does MassGain make the index actionable?
It connects the deficit with water capacity, acreage, contracts, crop evidence, prices, and sourcing alternatives.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
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Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.