Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Reference Price Gap
Potato reference price gap analysis measures the residual difference between a published reference and a matched physical transaction after freight, quality, geography, timing, and market stage are normalized. MassGain helps procurement teams isolate legitimate basis from unexplained supplier or benchmark divergence.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato reference-price-gap data measures the difference between a published benchmark and the price actually paid or offered for a matched physical potato exposure. The market object is the residual basis after geography, variety, grade, crop period, freight, delivery basis, quality, contract timing, and transaction size are normalized.
Use the data to reconcile supplier invoices and offers with the most relevant farmgate, processor, wholesale, delivered, auction, or index reference. Break the gap into explainable components and track the unexplained remainder over time rather than assuming every premium represents supplier margin.
Data Module
Potato Reference Price Gap
Market objectbenchmark-to-physical price basis
Primary measureexplained and residual price gap
Key dimensionsregion, product, quality, delivery
Commercial usesupplier and contract review
Basis factorsfreight, timing, quality, market stage
Compare withmatched purchases and alternate benchmarks
Analysis
Why this matters
A persistent reference-price gap can be legitimate when the benchmark and actual purchase serve different market stages or specifications. The problem arises when the residual grows after all observable commercial differences are accounted for.
Commercial interpretation should therefore separate benchmark mismatch from supplier-specific pricing. If the unexplained basis persists across several transactions, the buyer may need a different reference or a more explicit contract adjustment rather than a one-time negotiation.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement and market-intelligence teams that need to understand the gap between a published potato reference price and the price actually paid for a matched physical exposure. A reference-price gap can arise from geography, variety, grade, crop period, delivery basis, freight, quality, contract timing, transaction size, or a stale benchmark. MassGain helps users decompose the difference rather than treating it automatically as supplier margin.
The suite can align internal purchases with farmgate, wholesale, processor, delivered, auction, or index values after normalizing units, currency, product, and date. Procurement can see whether a quoted premium reflects stronger solids, scarce size, shorter lead time, or unsupported pricing. Finance can quantify residual basis in budgets and contracts. Market-intelligence teams can monitor whether the gap is temporary, persistent, widening, or explained by a methodology change.
MassGain does not assume a benchmark should equal every invoice. It provides a transparent reconciliation framework that documents each adjustment and shows the unexplained remainder. That allows teams to challenge genuine discrepancies while preserving legitimate commercial differences and selecting a more suitable reference when the current one repeatedly fails.
Use Case
A processor pays $268 per tonne while its contract benchmark prints $241. MassGain aligns delivery, freight, solids, storage premium, and the contract’s one-month lag. Most of the gap is supported, but $9 per tonne remains unexplained across several invoices, giving procurement a precise basis for supplier review.
FAQs
What is a potato reference price gap?
It is the difference between a reference value and a matched actual purchase or sale after relevant adjustments.
Why can a legitimate gap persist?
Quality, location, freight, timing, volume, contracts, and market stage can create durable basis.
How does MassGain isolate the unexplained portion?
It normalizes each commercial difference and leaves a documented residual for review.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.