Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Return Over Variable Costs
Potato return over variable costs measures the contribution remaining after production-dependent expenses are deducted from gross crop revenue. Growers and procurement teams can test acreage and contract scenarios while keeping fixed and ownership costs separate.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato return-over-variable-costs data subtracts production-dependent costs from gross crop revenue. The market object is the field or potato enterprise under a stated variable-cost definition, with revenue tied to marketable yield, price, quality, and crop use.
Use the measure for short-run contribution analysis, acreage decisions, and contract review. Include seed, fertilizer, crop protection, irrigation, seasonal labor, hauling, or other costs only according to the documented scope.
Data Module
Potato Return over Variable Costs
Market objectgross revenue less variable costs
Primary measurecontribution over variable costs
Key dimensionsfield, variety, crop year, cost scope
Commercial useshort-run enterprise economics
Cost contextseed, fertilizer, labor, irrigation
Compare withfixed costs and total return
Analysis
Why this matters
A positive return over variable costs means the crop contributes toward fixed costs, not that it is fully profitable. Land, machinery ownership, depreciation, and financing may still leave the enterprise below full economic return.
Commercial interpretation should use the measure for incremental decisions while keeping total-cost economics visible.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, growers, finance teams, and lenders that need to calculate potato return over variable costs. The measure subtracts costs that change with potato production from gross crop revenue, showing the contribution available to cover fixed costs, ownership expenses, debt service, and profit. MassGain connects both revenue and variable inputs with the physical potato market.
The suite can include seed, fertilizer, chemicals, hired field operations, fuel, irrigation, seasonal labor, hauling, grading, and other production-dependent costs under a stated definition. Revenue can be segmented by variety, grade, contract, spot sale, and quality adjustment. Growers can compare crops and fields. Procurement can evaluate whether contract economics support sustainable supply. Lenders can stress short-run cash generation. Analysts can distinguish a positive operating contribution from full economic profitability.
The calculation is sensitive to yield, marketable percentage, price, and which costs are classified as variable. MassGain does not define accounting treatment or recommend planting. It provides a transparent contribution framework that lets users test price, yield, input, and quality scenarios and understand how much of the crop’s revenue remains after the costs most directly tied to producing it.
Use Case
A grower considers adding 80 acres under a processor contract. MassGain compares expected revenue with seed, fertilizer, chemical, irrigation, labor, and hauling costs. The acres produce a positive return over variable costs, but not enough to justify new machinery, so the grower accepts only if existing capacity can handle them.
FAQs
What is return over variable costs?
It is gross potato revenue minus the costs that vary directly with producing and marketing the crop.
Does a positive return mean the crop is profitable?
Not necessarily; fixed costs, ownership charges, land, and debt still must be covered.
How does MassGain test the return?
It links marketable yield and price with field-level input, labor, irrigation, hauling, and quality assumptions.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.