Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Revenue Guarantee Model
A potato revenue guarantee model estimates protected crop revenue from defined yield, acreage, coverage, price, and unit inputs. MassGain connects that financial floor with budgets, contracts, marketable production, debt service, and downside scenarios so users can distinguish insured revenue from physical supply resilience.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato revenue-guarantee-model data combines approved yield or other production basis, insured acreage, coverage percentage, price election or reference, unit structure, and policy terms to estimate protected revenue. The market object is the modeled financial floor by unit and scenario.
Use the model to compare insurance protection with crop cost, debt service, contracts, expected marketable production, and downside price or yield cases.
Data Module
Potato Revenue Guarantee Model
Market objectmodeled protected crop revenue
Primary measuresguarantee and residual exposure
Key dimensionsunit, acres, yield, price, coverage
Commercial usesupplier and liquidity planning
Risk contextyield and price scenarios
Compare withbudgets, contracts, debt service
Analysis
Why this matters
Guaranteed revenue can protect liquidity while leaving quality, basis, and physical delivery risk untouched. A supplier may therefore be financially buffered but still unable to satisfy a processor contract.
Commercial interpretation should model the revenue floor and the expected physical-tonnage gap separately.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, finance, grower-relations, and market-intelligence teams that need a potato revenue guarantee model. The model estimates protected revenue using approved yield or another defined production basis, insured acreage, coverage percentage, price election or reference, unit structure, and applicable policy terms. MassGain then compares that protection with crop cost, contracts, expected marketable production, and current potato-price scenarios.
Procurement can assess whether key suppliers retain enough financial resilience after a poor yield or price outcome. Growers can see the difference between guaranteed revenue and expected sales. Lenders can stress debt service and working capital. Market intelligence can model regional events without assuming insurance replaces unavailable physical tonnes. Base, high, and low cases can separate official inputs from provisional crop and price estimates.
MassGain does not calculate an official guarantee, determine indemnity, or provide insurance advice. It provides a transparent planning framework that shows every assumption and connects financial protection with the separate operational risks of quality, basis, delivery, and replacement supply.
Use Case
A processor depends on growers with strong contracts but high input costs. MassGain compares their insured revenue guarantees with production budgets, debt payments, and a low-yield scenario. The analysis identifies which suppliers remain liquid and which need alternate financing or reduced contract concentration.
FAQs
What drives a potato revenue guarantee?
Yield basis, insured acres, coverage level, price basis, unit structure, and policy terms drive it.
Is guaranteed revenue the same as expected sales?
No. It is policy-defined protection and may exclude quality, basis, contract, or full-cost exposure.
How does MassGain use the model?
It compares official protection with budgets, contracts, prices, crop scenarios, debt, and residual supply risk.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.