Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Season Ending Stocks Forecast
A potato season ending stocks forecast estimates carryout after reconciling beginning stocks, production, demand, trade, seed, and losses. Segmenting the remainder by region, quality, commitments, and accessibility helps users judge true crop-transition coverage.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato season ending stocks forecast estimates inventory remaining at the end of a crop or marketing year after reconciling beginning stocks, production, fresh and processing use, seed, trade, losses, storage deterioration, and other disappearance. The forecast should segment stocks by region, variety, quality, and commercial accessibility.
Use the data to judge crop-transition risk, not just headline carryout. Remaining tonnes may be committed, off-specification, geographically mismatched, or deteriorating, so the commercially relevant measure is usable supply available to the next buyer or plant.
Data Module
Ending stocks forecast context
Beginning stocksopening usable inventory
Productionharvested and marketable crop
Disappearanceprocessing, fresh use, seed, feed, and trade
Storage lossshrink and quality deterioration
Accessibilitycommitted versus open usable volume
Decision usecrop transition, procurement, and collateral review
Analysis
Why this matters
Ending stocks can look comfortable on paper while a specific market is already tight. High-solids processing potatoes, large cartons, or a particular region can draw down much faster than aggregate inventory.
The analytical focus should therefore be on usable and accessible carryout. If the remaining stock is committed or quality-impaired, the effective supply cushion is smaller than the headline and replacement prices can tighten before the statistical year ends.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 10, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato prices quiet at $30/cwt as regional harvest damage buzzes beneath the surface
Market indicators are stable, but reporting from Europe and select growing areas shows real, localized crop stress — a reminder that steady headline prices can mask uneven physical risk.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for growers, processors, storage operators, lenders, merchants, and supply-chain planners that need a forecast of potato inventory remaining at the end of a marketing or crop year. A potato season ending stocks forecast begins with beginning inventory and production, then accounts for processing, fresh-market demand, seed, feed, exports, imports, losses, storage deterioration, and other disappearance. MassGain’s potato data suite helps organize those components by region, variety, market channel, and usable quality.
Ending stocks matter because the headline quantity can overstate commercially available supply. Potatoes may be committed, geographically mismatched, unsuitable for processing, or deteriorating before new crop. MassGain connects the forecast with regional prices, storage indicators, contract coverage, and historical drawdown patterns so users can identify whether the carryout is comfortable, tight, or vulnerable in a specific specification.
The analysis supports procurement coverage, storage release, grower marketing, lender collateral scenarios, and crop-transition planning. MassGain does not replace official stocks reports or private inventory records. It provides a transparent reconciliation framework that makes assumptions visible and converts ending tonnes into decision-relevant usable supply.
Use Case
A processor sees total ending stocks forecast near average, but MassGain shows most remaining volume is committed or below the solids specification required by one plant. Procurement secures a small bridge agreement for the final storage weeks and leaves the rest of the network unchanged, avoiding a companywide scarcity premium.
FAQs
What goes into a potato ending-stocks forecast?
Beginning stocks, production, trade, processing, fresh use, seed, feed, losses, and other disappearance are included.
Why can ending stocks overstate availability?
Inventory may be committed, unsuitable, deteriorating, or located too far from the buyer.
How does MassGain improve the forecast?
It adds regional quality, storage, contracts, prices, drawdown, and accessibility context.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.