Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Seasonal Basis Curve
A potato seasonal basis curve shows how a local physical price normally differs from a chosen benchmark across harvest, storage, and crop transition. Compare current basis with matched history, storage cost, shrink, quality, freight, inventory, and contract coverage to separate normal seasonality from unusual scarcity.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato seasonal-basis-curve dataset measures how a local physical potato price normally differs from a chosen benchmark across harvest, early storage, late storage, and new-crop transition. The market object is the monthly or stage-based basis profile by region, product, variety, quality, and delivery basis.
Use the data to separate normal seasonal carrying and quality effects from unusual scarcity or surplus. Compare current basis with historical crop years while incorporating storage cost, shrink, quality deterioration, harvest timing, freight, inventory, and contract coverage.
Data Module
Potato Seasonal Basis Curve
Market objectseasonal physical-price basis
Primary measurelocal price minus reference benchmark
Key dimensionsregion, crop stage, product, month
Commercial usemonthly budget and purchase timing
Driversstorage, shrink, quality, crop transition
Compare withhistorical basis and current availability
Analysis
Why this matters
Late-storage premiums can be partly structural because holding potatoes entails storage cost, shrink, and quality risk. The same spread can become exceptional when usable inventory is unusually scarce or harvest transition is delayed.
Commercial interpretation should compare the present curve with seasonally matched history rather than an annual average. The residual after normal carrying effects is a stronger signal of unusual physical pressure.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement and market-intelligence teams that need to understand how potato cash prices normally change across the crop and storage cycle. A seasonal basis curve compares a local physical price with a reference benchmark or forward value through harvest, early storage, late storage, and the transition into new crop. MassGain helps users separate normal seasonality from an unusual market dislocation.
The suite aligns regional spot prices, contract values, storage costs, quality changes, freight, crop timing, and benchmark movements on a common calendar. Procurement can see whether a widening basis reflects predictable carrying cost, deteriorating storage quality, delayed harvest, or genuine scarcity. Finance can build monthly budgets that recognize the shape of the season rather than applying one annual average. Analysts can compare the current curve with prior crop years and identify where this year is departing from historical ranges.
A seasonal basis curve is descriptive, not a guaranteed trading path. Contract coverage, regional weather, quality, and demand can alter the shape materially. MassGain does not promise convergence or prescribe positions. It provides the historical, regional, and physical-market framework needed to interpret monthly basis behavior, test supplier claims, and plan purchases around the periods when exposure is most likely to tighten or ease.
Use Case
A processor sees late-storage offers trading well above its annual benchmark. MassGain compares the current spread with ten prior crop years and shows that part of the widening is normal carrying cost, while the remainder reflects unusually low usable inventory. Procurement secures only the uncovered late-season tonnes and leaves new-crop volume open.
FAQs
What is a potato seasonal basis curve?
It shows how a local physical price normally differs from a chosen benchmark across the crop and storage cycle.
Why does potato basis change seasonally?
Harvest timing, storage cost, quality, freight, inventory, and new-crop transition all affect the spread.
How does MassGain use the curve?
It compares current monthly basis with historical ranges, crop conditions, contracts, and regional availability.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.