Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Size Price Differential
A potato size price differential is the spread between matched size categories for the same origin, variety, grade, crop period, package, and delivery basis. MassGain connects size availability and historical spreads with pack, culinary, or processing requirements so buyers can decide when to pay a premium, substitute another size, or reserve scarce product for rigid specifications.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato size price differential is the spread between matched size categories for the same origin, variety, grade, crop period, package, and delivery basis. Size affects culinary use, pack yield, customer requirements, and processing recovery.
Use size spreads to determine whether a premium reflects a genuinely scarce crop distribution or a temporary customer imbalance. Buyers can evaluate substitution, package changes, alternate origins, and the cost of preserving scarce sizes for the customers or products that need them.
Data Module
Size differential context
Reference sizebase count or size band
Compared sizepremium or discounted category
Originmatched producing region
Grade and packcomparable quality and package
Availabilitycrop size distribution and demand
Decision usesubstitution, allocation, and sourcing
Analysis
Why this matters
Potato crops distribute unevenly by size, so total supply can be abundant while one count remains tight. Large bakers, small specialty potatoes, or long processing tubers can develop independent premiums.
The analytical value lies in elasticity of substitution. If menus, packs, or processing lines can accept another size, the premium can often be avoided; where specifications are rigid, the spread represents real scarcity value. Category-wide inflation should not be inferred from one narrow size market.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for distributors, packers, processors, restaurant buyers, and procurement analysts who need to understand potato price differences by size. Size affects culinary use, package yield, cut recovery, processing suitability, customer specifications, and market demand. MassGain compares size categories within the same origin, variety, grade, crop period, package, and delivery basis so the differential reflects size rather than unrelated factors.
A crop can be abundant overall while one size remains scarce. Large baking counts, small retail potatoes, long processing tubers, and uniform canning sizes may each develop separate premiums. MassGain connects the size spread with crop distribution, pack-out, buyer demand, processing recovery, historical seasonality, and alternate origins. Buyers can decide whether to pay the premium, substitute another size, change package mix, or preserve scarce product for the customers who value it most. Processors can also translate size into finished yield, while distributors can avoid applying a narrow size shortage across every SKU. The result is a size-specific benchmark that supports product allocation, supplier negotiation, menu and package decisions, and more accurate delivered-cost analysis.
Use Case
A foodservice distributor sees 70-count russets rise sharply while 90-count potatoes remain stable. MassGain shows the premium is supported by a tight large-size distribution rather than broad russet inflation. The distributor reserves 70-count supply for steakhouse customers and substitutes 90-count product where menus allow.
FAQs
What is a potato size price differential?
It is the price spread between matched potato size categories in the same defined market.
Why can one potato size become scarce?
Crop size distribution, variety, weather, grade, pack demand, and end-use requirements can differ.
How does MassGain support size substitution?
It compares prices, availability, package economics, customer needs, and processing or culinary performance.
Put this market intelligence to work
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Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.