Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Stock Depletion Forecast
A potato stock depletion forecast projects how storage inventory could decline under expected withdrawals, shrink, quality loss, contracts, and demand. MassGain models merchantable—not merely nominal—stocks by region and product so procurement teams can identify when specific grades or processing pools may tighten before total inventory is exhausted.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato stock-depletion forecast projects when a defined pool of usable potatoes may fall below an operating threshold after demand, processor intake, shipments, seed use, shrink, quality loss, trade, and planned releases are applied. The market object is specification-ready inventory by region, variety, ownership, and period.
Use the data to identify the first vulnerable delivery window and to compare base, faster, and slower depletion paths. Start with merchantable and uncommitted stocks rather than total reported tonnes, and update the forecast as actual drawdown and quality evidence arrive.
Data Module
Potato Stock Depletion Forecast
Market objectforecast usable inventory path
Primary measuresremaining stocks and threshold date
Key dimensionsregion, variety, quality, ownership
Commercial uselate-season coverage planning
Driversdemand, shrink, quality, trade, releases
Compare withminimum buffer and alternate supply
Analysis
Why this matters
Commercial scarcity usually arrives before physical inventory reaches zero because the remaining tonnes may be contracted, poor quality, distant, or below a plant's minimum buffer. The threshold is therefore operational, not absolute.
Commercial interpretation should focus on the first specification and period that becomes uncovered. Targeted alternate sourcing is more rational than reacting to a generic depletion date for all potatoes.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement, processor planning, finance, and market-intelligence teams that need to forecast when a defined pool of potato stocks may be exhausted or fall below an operating threshold. A depletion forecast begins with verified usable inventory and projects withdrawals, shrink, quality loss, processor intake, fresh demand, seed use, trade, and planned releases over time.
MassGain can build forecasts by region, product, variety, quality cohort, plant, and ownership status. It distinguishes total reported stocks from uncommitted, specification-ready tonnes and updates the outlook as actual disappearance and condition data arrive. Procurement can identify the first vulnerable delivery period. Processors can adjust intake and production schedules. Finance can model price and working-capital exposure. Market intelligence can test alternate demand, import, and quality scenarios.
The date is not a promise that every potato disappears simultaneously. Commercial scarcity can emerge well before physical zero when remaining inventory is contracted, poor quality, distant, or unsuitable. MassGain documents assumptions, confidence, and revisions and provides base, faster, and slower depletion paths. It does not manufacture precision when data are sparse. The result is a decision-ready forecast of when usable supply becomes constrained and which assumptions could extend or shorten the window.
Use Case
A processor appears covered through May using headline regional stocks. MassGain removes contracted seed inventory, applies late-storage quality loss, and projects weekly intake. The usable high-solids pool falls below the plant’s minimum buffer in early April, prompting a targeted alternate-origin purchase rather than a broad emergency buy.
FAQs
What inputs drive a stock depletion forecast?
Usable beginning inventory, demand, processing, shipments, seed use, shrink, quality loss, and trade drive it.
Why can scarcity arrive before stocks reach zero?
Remaining potatoes may be contracted, unsuitable, geographically distant, or below minimum operating buffers.
How does MassGain show uncertainty?
It documents assumptions and presents multiple depletion paths with updated confidence and revisions.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.