Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Stocks Sampling Error
Potato stocks sampling error shows how much uncertainty surrounds survey-based inventory estimates. MassGain keeps confidence ranges, response coverage, weighting, revisions, withdrawals, and quality context visible so small reported changes are not treated as exact physical supply movements.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato stocks-sampling-error data records uncertainty around survey-based inventory estimates by region, storage type, respondent class, and reporting period. The market object is the stock estimate and its confidence range rather than one exact tonne figure.
Use the data to compare reported changes with standard error, response coverage, revisions, withdrawals, processor intake, and storage quality before altering procurement or valuation assumptions.
Data Module
Potato Stocks Sampling Error
Market objectuncertainty around stock estimate
Primary measuresestimate and confidence range
Key dimensionsregion, storage type, sample, period
Commercial usesupply and risk interpretation
Controlsresponse, weighting, revisions
Compare withwithdrawals, intake, quality
Analysis
Why this matters
A small year-over-year stock difference may sit inside normal survey uncertainty and provide weak evidence of a physical supply change. Regional error can also be much larger than national error.
Commercial interpretation should size decisions to the strength of the estimate and corroborate marginal changes with movement and quality data.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement and market-intelligence teams interpreting potato stocks sampling error before using an inventory estimate in coverage, pricing, or risk decisions. MassGain preserves the reported stock figure alongside sample size, survey frame, response rate, standard error, confidence interval, weighting, imputation, revision history, and reference date.
It helps users distinguish a real change in stored supply from movement that may fall inside normal survey uncertainty. Procurement can test whether an apparent surplus is large enough to alter contracting, finance can carry uncertainty into inventory valuation, and analysts can compare survey-based stocks with shipments, processor intake, storage inspections, and later revisions.
The suite also shows how sampling error can vary by region, storage type, crop use, or respondent class, preventing a national headline from being applied uniformly to smaller markets. MassGain does not replace the issuing agency’s methodology or claim certainty beyond the source. It provides a transparent uncertainty layer so teams can size decisions according to the strength of the underlying evidence rather than treating every published tonne as exact.
Use Case
A monthly stocks estimate shows one region 6% above last year. MassGain reveals the change is close to the survey’s sampling margin and conflicts with faster withdrawals and weaker storage quality. Procurement keeps its base coverage unchanged, adds a modest upside-supply scenario, and waits for the next survey rather than cancelling contracts.
FAQs
What is potato stocks sampling error?
It is the uncertainty created because a survey observes a sample of storage holders rather than the entire population.
Why can a small year-over-year change be misleading?
The difference may fall within the estimate’s confidence range and may not represent a meaningful physical change.
How does MassGain use the error measure?
It carries the uncertainty into supply scenarios and compares the estimate with movement, quality, and later revisions.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.