Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Stocks Surprise Index
A potato stocks surprise index measures the difference between newly reported storage inventory and the level expected beforehand. MassGain adjusts interpretation for crop size, quality, commitments, seasonal drawdown, revisions, and merchantability so a headline stock surprise is not automatically treated as equivalent available supply.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato stocks-surprise index measures the gap between a newly published inventory figure and the documented expectation for the same reference date, geography, and product scope. The market object is the standardized surprise with consensus range, release timing, composition, and subsequent revisions.
Use the data to test whether unexpected stocks are located in the regions and categories relevant to the buyer. Connect the surprise with quality, contracts, ownership, disappearance, and replacement-market access before changing late-season coverage.
Data Module
Potato Stocks Surprise Index
Market objectreported stocks versus expectation
Primary measurestandardized inventory surprise
Key dimensionsregion, category, reference date
Commercial uselate-season risk updating
Contextconsensus, quality, contracts, revisions
Compare withusable stocks and disappearance
Analysis
Why this matters
A positive national stocks surprise can be commercially bearish for one market and irrelevant to another. Excess seed or distant fresh inventory does not necessarily relieve a high-solids processing shortage.
Commercial interpretation should decompose both the numerator and the expectation. Procurement should react to unexpected usable supply, not simply to an unexpected headline stock total.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement and market-intelligence teams that need to quantify whether a potato stocks report came in above or below what the market expected. A stocks surprise index compares the newly published inventory figure with a documented consensus or internal forecast for the same date, geography, crop category, and reporting basis.
MassGain stores every expectation vintage, contributor range, publication timestamp, official figure, and subsequent revision. It also decomposes the surprise by region, product use, storage class, and crop year where data permit. Procurement can determine whether an apparent inventory cushion includes the exact varieties and specifications required by its plants. Processors can update late-season coverage. Finance can revise raw-cost and working-capital scenarios. Analysts can test whether prices reacted to genuinely new information or to a headline that was already anticipated.
A large positive surprise does not mean all reported potatoes are accessible or marketable. Contract commitments, deterioration, seed and fresh classifications, location, and storage quality may sharply reduce usable supply. MassGain does not convert one release into an automatic buying decision. It provides the expectation, physical-market context, and revision history needed to judge whether the surprise materially changes replacement cost, negotiation leverage, or shortage risk.
Use Case
Quarterly stocks are reported 9% above consensus. MassGain shows most of the excess sits in seed inventory and distant fresh-market stores, while usable processing stocks near the buyer’s plant are slightly below expectation. Procurement keeps its late-storage contingency instead of relaxing coverage on the national headline.
FAQs
What does a potato stocks surprise index measure?
It measures the gap between reported stocks and a documented expectation for the same reference date.
Why can a positive stocks surprise be misleading?
Product use, contracts, quality, ownership, and geography can make reported inventory unavailable to the buyer.
How does MassGain assess market impact?
It decomposes the surprise by region and category and links it with quality, disappearance, prices, and revisions.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.