Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Supply Surprise Index
For growers and potato supply-chain teams, potato supply surprise index helps measure how new acreage, yield, quality, inventory, and availability evidence differs from prior expectations. MassGain combines regional crop, quality, storage, price, availability, and timing signals so users can distinguish headline supply from commercially usable potatoes.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato supply surprise index measures how newly observed acreage, yield, harvest, quality, inventory, storage loss, trade, or availability differs from prior expectations for the same region and crop period. The market object is the change in expectation rather than the absolute size of supply.
MassGain standardizes those surprises and preserves the components behind them so users can see whether the revision came from tonnes, usable quality, timing, or market accessibility.
Data Module
Supply surprise context
Prior expectationbaseline forecast
New evidenceupdated crop or inventory signal
Directiontighter or more abundant than expected
Componentacreage, yield, quality, storage, or trade
Regional scopemarket affected by the revision
Decision useupdate pricing, storage, or sourcing assumptions
Analysis
Why this matters
Prices often respond to surprise rather than level. A large crop can still tighten the outlook if it comes in below an even larger forecast, while a modest crop can pressure prices if quality and usable supply exceed cautious expectations.
MassGain helps explain that distinction. The analytical value lies in showing what changed relative to expectation and whether the surprise is broad enough to alter the physical-market balance.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 10, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato prices quiet at $30/cwt as regional harvest damage buzzes beneath the surface
Market indicators are stable, but reporting from Europe and select growing areas shows real, localized crop stress — a reminder that steady headline prices can mask uneven physical risk.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This is for growers, processors, storage operators, and market planners that need to measure how new potato-supply information differs from what the market previously expected. A potato supply surprise index compares actual or newly reported acreage, yield, production, harvest progress, quality, inventories, storage losses, imports, and availability with a defined baseline forecast. MassGain’s potato data suite standardizes those comparisons by region and crop period, creating a directional signal that shows whether supply news is more abundant or tighter than anticipated.
The index is useful because prices often respond to changes in expectations rather than to the absolute size of the crop. A large harvest can still be bullish if it falls materially below an even larger forecast, while a modest crop may pressure prices if usable supply exceeds cautious expectations. MassGain preserves the components behind the headline so users can see whether the surprise came from acreage, yield, quality, storage, or market accessibility instead of treating every deviation as equivalent.
Growers can use the signal to inform marketing and storage reviews, while processors and supply-chain teams can update coverage, budgets, and sourcing plans. MassGain does not claim that a positive or negative surprise will produce a fixed price reaction. It provides a transparent benchmark for measuring expectation changes, comparing regions, and identifying when the physical supply outlook has shifted enough to justify a new commercial assumption.
Use Case
Before harvest, the market expects a processing region to produce near-trend volume. New field and intake evidence shows average tonnage but materially better solids and fewer defects, creating more usable factory supply than forecast. MassGain’s surprise index turns positive for that region. A processor delays an expensive supplemental purchase, while growers review storage and marketing plans because the improvement is concentrated in processing-grade availability rather than total tonnes alone.
FAQs
What does a potato supply surprise index measure?
It measures the difference between newly observed supply evidence and a defined prior expectation for the same region and period.
Can a large crop still create a negative surprise?
Yes. If production or usable quality falls below an even higher forecast, the surprise can still indicate tighter-than-expected supply.
Why show the index components?
Component detail reveals whether acreage, yield, quality, storage, trade, or availability caused the change in expectations.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
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Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.