Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Uncommitted Supply Forecast
A potato uncommitted supply forecast estimates the volume likely to remain commercially available after contracts, seed needs, known allocations, storage requirements, quality losses, and other committed uses are deducted. MassGain segments that flexible supply by region, variety, specification, and delivery window so buyers can judge how much exposure can safely remain open.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato uncommitted supply forecast estimates the volume likely to remain commercially available after existing contracts, seed needs, known allocations, storage requirements, quality losses, and other committed uses are deducted. The forecast should be segmented by region, variety, specification, and delivery window because headline crop size can greatly overstate flexible supply.
MassGain can combine production scenarios with contract coverage, storage condition, open-market behavior, and historical selling patterns. Buyers can use the result to decide how much volume may safely remain uncovered and when supplemental agreements or alternate regions deserve attention.
Data Module
Uncommitted supply forecast context
Expected cropmarketable production by region
Committed volumecontracts and known allocations
Seed and retained usevolume unavailable to buyers
Quality adjustmentsupply outside required specification
Timingavailability by delivery or storage window
Decision useopen exposure and supplemental sourcing
Analysis
Why this matters
Uncommitted supply can tighten even when the crop is large because the most useful varieties and grades may already be spoken for. Conversely, an apparent shortage can be less severe if growers retain flexible marketable volume that can move between channels.
The forecast should therefore distinguish physical existence from commercial accessibility. Price signals matter because rising open-market premiums can bring flexible supply forward, but only if growers are willing to sell and the potatoes fit the buyer's specification, geography, and timing.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 10, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato prices quiet at $30/cwt as regional harvest damage buzzes beneath the surface
Market indicators are stable, but reporting from Europe and select growing areas shows real, localized crop stress — a reminder that steady headline prices can mask uneven physical risk.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This is for processors, merchants, growers, distributors, and supply-chain teams that need to estimate how much potato volume is likely to remain available outside existing contracts. An uncommitted supply forecast starts with expected production and inventory, then deducts contract obligations, seed retention, known customer allocations, quality losses, storage requirements, and other committed uses. MassGain’s potato data suite helps organize those adjustments by region, variety, specification, and delivery period so users do not mistake total crop size for flexible open-market supply.
The forecast is valuable when buyers are deciding whether to leave volume uncovered or secure supplemental agreements. A region can appear well supplied while nearly all suitable processing potatoes are already committed, or a nominal surplus may consist of varieties, grades, or locations that are not practical for the intended use. MassGain combines crop outlooks, contract coverage indicators, storage condition, open-market prices, and historical selling patterns to build base, tight, and abundant scenarios.
MassGain does not know every private agreement or guarantee that forecast volume will be offered. It provides a transparent estimate of likely commercially accessible supply, helping procurement set coverage targets, growers assess marketing flexibility, and finance quantify the cost and risk of remaining open.
Use Case
A frozen-potato processor expects to buy 30,000 supplemental tonnes after harvest. Headline production looks comfortable, but MassGain’s forecast deducts contracted factory volume, seed needs, quality loss, and potatoes outside the required solids range. Only 18,000 tonnes appear realistically uncommitted locally. Procurement reserves that volume and qualifies a neighboring region before post-harvest demand absorbs the remaining supply.
FAQs
What is uncommitted potato supply?
It is suitable production or inventory not already obligated through contracts, reservations, seed needs, or other defined uses.
Why can uncommitted supply be much smaller than the crop?
Most usable volume may already be contracted, allocated, unsuitable, or uneconomic to move.
How does MassGain forecast open availability?
It combines production, commitments, quality, storage, prices, timing, and regional market depth in scenario form.
Put this market intelligence to work
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Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.