Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Yield Guarantee Model
A potato yield guarantee model translates approved yield, acreage, coverage, and unit structure into a protected-production amount. MassGain compares that guarantee with crop forecasts, marketable quality, processor contracts, and replacement needs so growers and buyers can see the physical exposure remaining outside insurance.
Market Data
How to read this market
Potato yield-guarantee-model data converts approved yield, insured acreage, coverage level, unit structure, and applicable policy inputs into a defined protected-production amount. The market object is guaranteed production by grower or insured unit compared with expected marketable yield and contract obligations.
Use the model to quantify the uninsured production gap and compare financial protection with crop forecasts, quality, contracts, and replacement supply.
Data Module
Potato Yield Guarantee Model
Market objectmodeled protected potato production
Primary measuresguaranteed yield and residual exposure
Key dimensionsunit, acres, approved yield, coverage
Commercial usefarm and supplier-risk planning
Risk contextquality, crop performance, contracts
Compare withexpected and marketable production
Analysis
Why this matters
A yield guarantee protects a defined production level financially, but it does not ensure the grower will deliver those tonnes or meet processor quality. The physical contract gap can remain significant even when an indemnity is expected.
Commercial interpretation should compare guaranteed yield with expected marketable production and keep replacement-supply needs visible.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for growers and producers, processor procurement teams, agricultural lenders, and risk managers that need a transparent potato yield guarantee model. The model converts the approved yield, insured acres, coverage level, unit structure, and applicable policy inputs into a defined protected-production amount, then compares that amount with expected marketable yield and contractual delivery obligations.
MassGain connects the guarantee with field-level acreage, APH records, crop progress, weather, quality, storage plans, and processor contracts. Growers can see how much production risk remains above the insured guarantee. Lenders can stress liquidity and repayment capacity after a poor crop. Procurement teams can identify suppliers whose insurance may support financial recovery but still leave a physical delivery gap. Scenario views can separate confirmed policy values from provisional crop estimates and show how unit aggregation or quality treatment changes the practical result.
MassGain does not calculate an official guarantee, determine eligibility, or provide insurance advice. It provides an auditable planning framework that keeps policy protection distinct from expected yield and usable supply, helping teams understand what is covered, what remains exposed, and which contracts or sourcing regions require contingency planning.
Use Case
A processor depends on a grower for 18,000 tonnes, but the grower’s insured yield guarantee protects only about 72% of expected production. MassGain maps the protected tonnes by unit and shows a drought could trigger financial recovery while still leaving a 4,500-tonne delivery shortfall. Procurement secures a regional option for the uncovered volume.
FAQs
What drives a potato yield guarantee?
Approved yield, insured acreage, coverage level, unit structure, and policy terms determine the protected production.
Is the guarantee the same as expected harvest?
No. It is a policy-defined protection level, not a forecast of actual or marketable production.
How does MassGain show residual risk?
It compares guaranteed yield with crop forecasts, quality, contracts, costs, and replacement-supply needs.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.