Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Potato Yield Surprise Index
A potato yield surprise index measures how new regional yield evidence differs from the expectation embedded in earlier forecasts. MassGain connects the surprise with acreage, quality, harvest progress, weather, crop use, and historical estimate error so analysts can translate a statistical miss into potential supply impact.
Market Data
How to read this market
A potato yield-surprise index measures the difference between a newly reported yield and the expectation held beforehand for the same region, crop type, and release vintage. The market object is the standardized forecast error with consensus dispersion, acreage context, and later revisions preserved.
Use the data to update expected production and grower revenue while separating total field yield from specification-ready output. Decompose the surprise by variety, region, size, solids, quality, and market use where evidence permits.
Data Module
Potato Yield Surprise Index
Market objectyield versus prior expectation
Primary measurestandardized yield surprise
Key dimensionsregion, crop use, release vintage
Commercial usecrop and supply updating
Contextacreage, quality, consensus dispersion
Compare withusable production and contracts
Analysis
Why this matters
A positive yield surprise can leave processing supply unchanged if the additional tonnes are small, low-solids, or concentrated in table varieties. Headline field productivity and commercial availability are separate signals.
Commercial interpretation should convert the surprise into marketable tonnes for the relevant end use. The strongest price implication comes when yield changes the scarce specification rather than the broad crop total.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for growers, producer groups, processors, lenders, and market analysts that need to measure how reported potato yield differs from the expectation held before a crop release. A yield surprise index standardizes that gap for a defined region, crop type, and publication vintage, making an upside or downside result comparable across years without confusing the surprise with the absolute yield level.
MassGain preserves the prior consensus, forecast dispersion, release date, official yield, later revisions, and the acreage and product mix behind the number. Growers can see whether a regional surprise reflects their varieties and production system. Processors can translate the change into likely raw-tonnage availability and quality risk. Lenders can update revenue and collateral scenarios. Analysts can test how earlier crop surveys, weather signals, and market prices anticipated the result.
A positive yield surprise does not automatically mean abundant usable potatoes. Size, solids, defects, storage suitability, contracts, and regional processing demand still determine commercial supply. MassGain does not treat the index as a deterministic price signal. It provides a transparent expectation-versus-outcome framework that shows what was genuinely new information, where the surprise occurred, and how much it should alter supply, pricing, and contracting assumptions.
Use Case
A processing region reports yield 7% above consensus. MassGain shows the gain is concentrated in high-yielding table varieties, while the processor’s contracted fry varieties are only 1% above expectation and have weaker solids. Procurement trims its shortage case modestly instead of applying the headline surprise to all raw coverage.
FAQs
What is a potato yield surprise index?
It standardizes the difference between reported yield and a documented prior expectation for the same market.
Does a positive yield surprise guarantee more usable supply?
No. Variety, quality, solids, contracts, storage, and location still determine commercial availability.
How does MassGain preserve the surprise?
It stores forecast vintages, consensus dispersion, official releases, revisions, and regional composition.
Put this market intelligence to work
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Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.