Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Starch Potato Production Forecast
A starch potato production forecast estimates both harvested raw tonnes and the extractable starch those potatoes can deliver. MassGain combines acreage, crop condition, yield, quality, abandonment, starch content, harvest progress, and processor receipts so plants can plan coverage and campaign duration on usable output.
Market Data
How to read this market
A starch-potato production forecast estimates raw harvested tonnes and expected extractable starch by region, plant catchment, variety, and crop year. The market object is a versioned production range built from acreage, crop development, yield, abandonment, quality, starch content, harvest progress, and accepted processor deliveries.
Use the forecast to compare likely plant-ready supply with campaign requirements and to update the outlook as field samples and intake data replace early assumptions. Keep gross field output separate from accepted raw tonnes and from the starch yield those tonnes can produce.
Data Module
Starch Potato Production Forecast
Market objectforecast starch-ready production
Primary measuresraw tonnes and extractable starch
Key dimensionsregion, variety, plant, crop year
Commercial usecampaign and coverage planning
Driversacreage, yield, quality, starch content
Compare withcontracted demand and actual intake
Analysis
Why this matters
Field yield and starch output can move in different directions. A crop can deliver normal tonnes but weaker starch concentration, forcing processors to run more raw material for the same finished output.
Commercial interpretation should therefore focus on extractable starch as well as tonnes. Changes in the forecast matter most where they overlap plant requirements, contract coverage, and the remaining ability to source supplemental raw potatoes.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for food processors building a starch potato production forecast by region, plant catchment, variety, and crop year. MassGain combines planted acreage, emergence, weather, crop condition, irrigation, disease, harvest progress, yield evidence, abandonment, starch content, and processor contracting.
It produces base, high, and low scenarios for raw tonnes and extractable starch rather than relying on one headline production number. Procurement can identify uncovered plant requirements, operations can plan campaign duration and intake quality, finance can model raw cost and utilization, and commercial teams can anticipate finished starch and coproduct availability. The forecast is versioned through the season so users can compare early assumptions with later field evidence and measure error after final production.
MassGain also separates gross field output from accepted processor tonnes and accounts for quality, storage, and delivery losses. It does not guarantee weather outcomes or replace agronomic inspection. It provides a transparent, source-dated forecast that shows which assumptions drive the outlook and how changes in acreage, yield, or starch content affect practical plant supply.
Use Case
A starch plant initially expects a full autumn campaign. MassGain updates the forecast after heat stress lowers expected starch content despite stable field yield. The plant secures supplemental raw volume, revises energy and recovery assumptions, and adjusts sales commitments before harvest begins.
FAQs
What should a starch potato forecast measure?
It should measure both raw tonnes and expected extractable starch.
Why use multiple scenarios?
Weather, yield, abandonment, quality, and starch content remain uncertain until harvest and intake.
How often can the forecast change?
It can update as acreage, crop condition, field sampling, harvest, and processor receipts develop.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
and market-analysis needs.
Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.