Current UCUI
68/100
Moderate-High Uncertainty
+4 points from prior reading
Potato Market Intelligence
Usda Potato Production
USDA potato production measures official crop output by state or reporting area from harvested acreage and yield estimates. MassGain connects the headline crop with variety, quality, crop use, storage, contracts, and regional demand so users can translate gross production into supply relevant to a particular plant or market.
Market Data
How to read this market
USDA potato production data measures official crop output by state or reporting area using harvested acreage and yield estimates, with reporting vintage and revisions. It provides a core supply benchmark for the U.S. potato market.
Use production as the starting point for supply analysis, then refine it by variety, crop use, quality, location, storage suitability, and contract status. Processors and procurement teams should compare the national figure with the regions and products that actually serve their plants.
Data Module
USDA potato production context
Harvested areaacres brought to harvest
Yieldproduction per harvested acre
Outputtotal reported crop
Geographystate or reporting area
Vintageestimate and revision timing
Decision usesupply outlook and regional coverage
Analysis
Why this matters
Production is not the same as usable supply. A larger national crop can leave a processor tight if the increase occurs in another region, another variety, or product that does not meet the plant's specification.
The commercial interpretation should therefore follow the crop from gross output to accessible tonnes. Quality, harvest loss, storage, contracts, and regional demand can all reduce the share that is practically available. National growth is most relevant when it appears in the market segment actually exposed.
Signal 01
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index
UCUI translates crop and market complexity into a simple uncertainty signal. Higher readings indicate greater uncertainty—not necessarily higher prices.
Understand uncertainty. Anticipate risk. Act earlier.
UCUI is designed to analyze potato-industry publications and data signals across regions, varieties, weather, disease, storage, supply, and demand.
WeatherHigh
DiseaseHigh
StorageMedium
SupplyMedium
Single-day snapshot based on a scan of 11,500+ web and social signals. Get historical and real-time data by clicking the button below.
The MassGain Daily
Today’s market analysis.
A daily editorial synthesis of physical potato data, crop signals, market reporting, and what participants should watch next.
September 16, 2026Latest MassGain publication
Potato market steady for now; Russia’s smaller crop is the salient risk
Spot prices are flat and USDA terminal reports read ‘market steady,’ but a renewed forecast for a smaller Russian harvest and recent regional harvest stress leave seasonal import timing and storage losses as the key uncertainty.
Signal 02
MassGain Potato Index
Independent physical-pricing intelligence and market-trend analysis for procurement, forecasting, contracting, and scenario planning.
Core Russet Carton Median
312.45 USD/MT
Latest qualifying physical-market observation
+4.75 (+1.55%)
Price discovery for the physical potato market
MPI is designed to track physical pricing data, price trends, deltas, and divergences across regions and potato types.
Series window45 days
Current public coverageCore russet cartons
Primary source basisQualifying USDA physical rows
UnitUSD per metric tonne
Single-day snapshot based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varieties by clicking the button below.
Signal 03
MassGain Spot Reference
An independent spot reference designed for price discovery, contract discussions, procurement comparisons, and risk modeling.
Russet Burbank — U.S. Midsize
305 USD/MT
Demonstration reference format
+1.6% WoW · Confidence: High
A trusted benchmark for pricing, contracts, and risk
MSR is intended to use real transactions and verifiable physical-market data to support negotiations, price checks, contracting, and risk models.
ProductRusset Burbank
SpecificationU.S. midsize, 40–70 count
Reference typePhysical spot benchmark
StatusIn development
Based on most recent 45 days worth of data. Limited to US Russets only. Get more complete, global data about all varities by clicking the button below. Full access also includes historical data -- including depreciated NYMEX/CBOE/EEX spot references -- projections, trends, and AI-driven insights.
The MassGain Product Ladder
From insight to intelligence to action
Four integrated products built for the physical potato market, delivered through public pages, reports, exports, dashboards, and API access.
1
Content
Original research, commentary, aggregated news, and market updates.
- What matters right now?
- What is happening out there?
2
UCUI™
Usable Crop Uncertainty Index: an AI-powered signal of crop risk and market uncertainty.
- Understand uncertainty
- Anticipate risk
- Act earlier
3
MPI™
MassGain Potato Index: independent physical-pricing intelligence and trend analysis.
- Price discovery
- Regional trends
- Procurement planning
4
MSR™
MassGain Spot Reference: an independent benchmark for price discovery and risk modeling.
- Contracts
- Negotiations
- Risk models
Content + UCUI + MPI + MSR + API access
Get historical series, regional detail, constituent data, exports, alerts, and direct data access.
Overview
Who is this for?
This page is for procurement teams, processors, growers, lenders, analysts, and government-data users that rely on USDA potato production figures to understand the size and composition of the U.S. crop. MassGain places the official production estimate beside planted and harvested acreage, yield, state-level output, crop use, reporting vintage, and subsequent revisions so users can see what the number actually represents.
Production is a critical supply input, but it is not the same as commercially usable potato volume. Variety, grade, size, solids, harvest loss, storage suitability, regional location, and existing contracts determine how much of the reported crop can serve a particular processor or market. MassGain helps users compare the USDA estimate with historical ranges, regional price behavior, stocks, processing demand, and field or intake evidence. This is useful for raw-material coverage, grower and borrower analysis, storage planning, trade scenarios, and market outlooks. By retaining the official methodology while adding physical-market context, MassGain helps teams avoid assuming that a large national crop automatically creates abundant supply for every state, product, or plant.
Use Case
A frozen-potato processor sees USDA production rise 4% nationally and considers reducing supplemental coverage. MassGain shows most of the increase occurred in states and varieties outside the company’s sourcing footprint, while usable processing output near one plant remains tight. Procurement keeps the regional contingency in place and finance avoids lowering that plant’s cost assumption based on the national headline.
FAQs
What does USDA potato production measure?
It measures official crop output by defined states, periods, acreage, yield, and reporting categories.
Why can USDA production exceed usable supply?
Quality, variety, location, storage suitability, contracts, and harvest losses can reduce commercially accessible volume.
How does MassGain add context to USDA production?
It connects the official estimate with regional prices, stocks, demand, revisions, quality, and actual sourcing exposure.
Put this market intelligence to work
Get historical data, regional detail, benchmarks, alerts, exports, and API access tailored to your procurement
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Data and Methodology
Professional market-data standards
MassGain is building transparent public market infrastructure. Each live metric will identify its date, unit, coverage, methodology, and source basis.
Data provenance
MassGain uses public, licensed, contributed, and independently derived physical-market information. Source availability and publication schedules vary.
Timing and revisions
Figures may reflect the latest available observation rather than a same-day transaction. Source data and MassGain calculations may be corrected, restated, or revised.
Not transactional pricing
MassGain figures are informational reference values and do not constitute executable bids, offers, settlements, or guarantees that a transaction can occur at the displayed value.
No individualized advice
Content and data are provided for informational and analytical purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, trading, or individualized procurement advice.
Independent publication
Certain observations may be derived from USDA reports. MassGain is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by the USDA.
Commercial use and licensing
Public display does not grant rights to reproduce, redistribute, republish, or incorporate MassGain indices or references into commercial products or contracts without authorization.